I wrote the first run down on the top candidates for the GOP ticket back in January. Here is an update:

McCain

Odds: (primary) 42% (general) 51%

Positive:

Seen by many to be moderate which means he will appeal to Independents and those who lean toward the Right.

Pro-life and pro-military enough to appeal to Christians and moderate conservatives.

Has many supporters on both sides of the aisle…shown ability to work with all camps. All groups will see him as the “lesser of two evils” and an alternative to the extreme candidates.

Negative:

In 2000, McCain got burnt badly by the GOP and other conservative groups that choose Bush to run on the national ticket. Since then, he has actively courted the Democrats. There are many in the Republican camp that dislike him and will find it difficult to support him.

No charisma. Many who has met the man has been quoted as saying that while Bush may lack the charm of Reagan and Clinton, up close and personal, he is someone that seems sincere and very likeable. McCain on the other hand has been described as standoffish and bitter. He is known to be unforgiving and takes criticism badly.

**

Prediction:

McCain has too much ground to make up with his own party…IF he wins the primary…McCain has a slightly better than average chance to take the White House from those who truly dislike Hillary, find Obama a joke, and is scared sh*tless of a President Nancy.

=UPDATE:

My British business partner and I have had a running disagreement on the viability of McCain’s campaign. I still think the man has angered too many people to win the primary, BUT his recent comeback to a reporter asking him for “an apology” to “Get a life” is what many people sick of Bush’s turn the other cheek will find appealing. I thought he lost 10% in the odds because of his lack of ability to raise money, but the next fund raiser (if he keeps this up) may find him catching up. I think he might have lost a bit with the Independents, who like winners, again we’ll have to see how his next raising funds do.

The final odds of today: (primary) 40%, (general) 50%

Guilliani

Odds: 32% (primary) 61% (general)

Positive:

“America’s Mayor” was tough on New York’s crime, the terrorists, and unapologetic toward the politically correct. He appeals to anyone that didn’t like the feeling of losing a war.

He is down home enough to win over the average working joe/jane but forceful enough to make the elites give him a wide berth.

Cops, firemen, troops like his masculine demeanor. Guilliani is a “man’s man”.

Negative:

A HUGE one…Guilliani is socially liberal. With the president having the ability to appoint judges…pro-lifers and marriage defining supporters will block any attempt to win the primary.

Nationally, Guilliani is untested. It is one thing to send N.Y. cops in to clean up American streets quite another to send troops to a foreign country where you have to deal with other cultures and their different court systems.

Americans may have adored Guilliani refusal of blood money from the Saudi prince, but such diplomatic faux pas would give new meaning to the phrase “American Trash”.

Prediction:

Guilliani has almost zero chance to win the GOP ticket. Not only will he be up against the traditionalist who are socially conservative…absolutists detest his pro-illegal immigration and gun control stand. He has too many fractions under the GOP tent to win a place on the ticket. BUT if he does win, he will appeal to enough groups on the Right, Left, and the all important Middle to win.

=UPDATE:

There was a period that Rudy was looking like the front runner. But that all got trashed when the Supreme Court handed the pro-abortionist it’s biggest lost in 3 decades. Now pro-lifers and Christians are remembering why they voted for Bush and a GOP Congress to begin with.

And don’t underestimate this block of voters. It is widely held that the stunt the Dems pulled (leaking the story of Bush’s drinking before he “found” Christ) almost tanked Bush’s candidacy. It took a lot of reminding from the pulpit to get this block of voters out on election day.

It is also why Queen Hill found religion after the 2004 elections.

Today’s odds: (Primary) 20%, (General) 47%

Romney

Odds: 51% (primary) 49% (general)

Positive:

A favorite of many Republicans, Romney has just enough conservative views to satisfy most of the fractions under the GOP tent. On all the key issues, he hits the right notes and manages to do so without sounding harsh or extreme.

Relatively free of private scandals and bad personal behavior, he will appeal to church going Middle America.

Being the son of an ex-governor and an alumni of both Stanford and Harvard, Romney has enough elite credentials to satisfy the ex-lawyer talk show host and Pulitzer prize winning columnists.

Negative:

Two large liabilities or two on each side of the same coin. Many voters find leaders who place religion as an important part of their lives “scary”. And while this was countermanded in Bush by the Christians who shared his religion…Romney belongs to “one of those” religious sects…”MORMON”.

Some Christians…most prominently born-again Evangelical Christians do not consider Mormons “Christians” at all and would support a conventional Christian claimant (even if she is a non-practicing one) before voting for one that may bring some of “those” beliefs into their White House decisions.

Prediction:

I am factoring his “Mormonism” into this prediction. Most Christians on the Right will weigh his conservative views against his religion and accept him as they had Catholic JFK. It is only the Evangelical groups that may prefer someone who follows the “right” religion even if she put in a judge that would find the right to marriage for gays in the constitution.

Romney’s electability rating drops in the general because of the sectarian group that fears all religions.

Note: I did not put his “adaptability” to issues in either the positive or negative column as I’m not sure if this flexibility is a plus or minus. It does show a serious ability to win, which is needed, but also hints at the possibility that his views can be altered by polls.

Thus, it is my belief this is the one candidate that may get in—just under the radar—while the others are busy fighting turf wars.

He is also the closest in temperament to Bush and if he does win-- I fear another 8 years of bashing—from the MSM who will accuse him of everything to the RINO press who will forgive him nothing.

=UPDATE

My greatest fear regarding Romney is the apparent anointing of the RINO press. Is he a man that will be ruled by them via the polls?

In any event, he has managed to do the impossible…soothe all the fractions on the Right, which is what is needed, so I am going to up his numbers in the primary (62%) but not the general (49%) as Romney fails to inspire.

Gingrich

Odds: 35% (primary), 33% (general)

Positive:

The darling of the absolutists…Gingrich is credited with not only espousing their ideals; but being one of the forefathers of its conception.

Every hard line Conservative stand, Gingrich supports and he promises a return to the days of the “contract with America”, the glory days when Congress was held in a stalemate over issues, and wearing down the tip of the almighty “veto” pen.

Negative:

What Gingrich doesn’t remind you and most of his supporters would rather forget is that those “glory days” of fighting a Democratic President resulted in Gingrich LOSING and playboy Clinton being forever more considered a political genus.

Gingrich also fails in the moral character category having “enjoyed” after hours “comforting” from his secretary while his wife lay serious ill in the hospital. This error in marital fidelity will NOT endear him, to not just the Christians but to the 50% of the population that is female…many of which are wives and mothers.

Prediction:

Gingrich will get slaughtered by the media…the Left because his personal baggage make him such an easy target…and the Right because they are sitting too high on their sanctimonious perch NOT to at least sound offended. The RINO press cannot preach that Gingrich’s personal life is private after years of bashing Clinton’s lack of moral character.

Politically, Gingrich made a serious miscalculation when he tried to shut down the government…and ten years later, he STILL does not comprehend that not ALL Americans are Conservatives and agree with his vision of the world. Gingrich may fire up the choir on the Right…but the rest of America finds his narrow ideals about as interesting as a Saturday afternoon t.v. sermon.

=UPDATE

I think Gingrich is smart enough to realize that his appeal lay in his “what if”. If he should run; his following would learn that his no compromise, no tolerance would not work any better than it did 10 years ago.

To keep his mystique and the money it generates in appearance, books, and speeches, Gingrich won’t run.

Odds if he did: 20% (primary), 22% (general)

Brownback

Odds: 20% (primary), 62% (general)

Positive:

Full of charisma, Brownback has been exciting the national voters for quite some time. He has the JFK good looks, the Reagan smoothness, the Bush sincerity, and the Tony Blair rhetorical skills.

The absolutist love his strong, feisty personality. The RINO press will find his eloquent speech acceptable. His conservative family values will satisfy the religious groups while his non-preachy style won’t alarm the sectarian.

He has enough time in Congress to have earned some measure of respect from both his colleagues and the MSM.

His past is relatively light in scandals, especially since Clinton, Gingrich, and Foley took Washington scandals to a new level.

Negative:

The 2006 lost of a Republican Congress truly shook Brownback. He has gone from thunderous (but sane) conservatism to a strict moderate road. He refuses to issue an opinion on anything but the most agreed upon issues…like finding a cure for cancer and better educating our children.

His reaction to the lost of Congress is another indication of my belief that the illegal immigration issue is a losing ticket. If Hillary, the most mercenary of politicians can soften her tone on abortion after the 2004 election, why isn’t she right there insisting on tough anti-illegal enforcement…or why has Brownback refused to touch that subject with a ten-foot poll?

Prediction:

Brownback has no monetary backing to launch and maintain a presidential campaign. To gain that, he has to take a bold stand on the issues…if he jumps wrong; he will lose any possibility of raising funds.

If by some miracle, he does win the primary, he stands a great chance of winning the general because of the first “positive” I listed.

=UPDATE

Brownback has come back on track…strong on core issues but he has lost momentum. I’m not sure he can gain it back, but I’ve altered his chances to win the primary and the general.

Odds: 30% (primary), 60% (general).

Rice

Odds: 75% (primary)* 68% (general)*

Positive:

Black—will get the minority vote (not just Blacks).

Female—will get the women vote (or those who would like to see a female in the top office.

Highly educated, intelligent, artistic—her degrees which includes a doctrine, her Stanford tenure, and her figure skating, ballet, and concert piano accomplishments will satisfy the most snobbish voter.

Impeccable Christian background—father was a pastor during the civil rights and many of the Christian community think of her as their “own.”

National / International figure—As Secretary of State, she doesn’t suffer from lack of name recognition.

Negative:

Seen as a Bush “lacky” and some will fear a continuation of the Bush legacy.

Moderate on some issues—such as Israel, but may be due to her diplomatic role.

Is “hands on” in the administration of her department—some see this as “micromanaging”.

But the real NEGATIVE to a Rice presidency is that she WILL NOT RUN.

Prediction:

The asterisk above is to note that the numbers are only if Rice ran. After watching up front and personal what the “base” and the RINO press has done to her mentor…the only way that she will become president is if the GOP “drafts” her. To do that, the RINO press will have to be neutralized (see my article on the Brilliance of Karl Rove for possible method of accomplishing that.)

Bush 3 (as in Jeb)

Odds: 67% (primary)* 52% (general)*

Positive:

Jeb is a lot less “nice” than his brother. He won’t turn that Christian “other cheek” for the media on both sides to bash.

Jeb has proven to be an effective leader in Florida and his diplomatic and communication skills are polished.

He’s in line with most of America…Right of center with strong leanings toward the Right socially and fiscally.

Negative:

ANOTHER BUSH would drive the liberals NUTS…but the RINO press would also want to justify their Bush bashing by finding fault with this 3^rd Bush. It would be more ugliness in politics.

As in Rice…this Bush WILL NOT RUN. He’s seen how the press and the RINO media in particularly, treats Bush(s) and he will not subject himself or his family to that abuse.

Prediction:

Most voting GOPs like Jeb. He has all the polish that his father and brother lacks—and he’s a lot tougher.

But again, as with Rice, the asterisk above is to note what would happen if by some miracle, Jeb got on the GOP ticket.

ADDITIONS:

HUNTER

Odds: 41% (primary), 59% (general)

Positive:

Strongly pro-life, fiscally responsible, pro-military, and pro-controlling the borders, Hunter will unite most of those on the Right.

He appears to solidly loyal to friends and issues, something that will appeal to the Independents. And his rhetoric isn’t extreme or lacking of intolerance, a big plus in gaining the moderate vote.

He has relatively little controversy or skeletons in his closet and one big ace: he is an ex-vet and his son is an ex-marine that has been on two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Negative:

He is a relative unknown and lacks the financial power backing of the top three contenders.

Prediction:

If he makes it pass the primary, the GOP will back him and I believe that once the rest of America hears about him, he just might beat Queen Hill or Obama.

THOMPSON

Odds: 35% (primary), 51% (general)

Positive:

Thompson reminds many people of Reagan because he’s also an actor. Like Reagan, he’s also been divorced and remarried. And also like Reagan, he has a great voice and knows how to deliver well written lines.

Negative:

I’m not quite sure what he stands for or what he’s done to lead anyone to believe that he would make a great president. I know he endorsed McCain over Bush in the pre-2000 primary and that he went after Clinton’s impeachment but was ineffectual in getting the goods against Clinton. He also “appears” to being a Christian but I have no idea where he stands on the issues.

His eight years in Congress did not present him to be a strong social conservative, yet he is rated high by conservative groups—why?

He also has cancer which is bad thing to try to combat in the best of circumstances—the stress of the oval office, the hostile MSM and its alternate press will kill him.

Prediction:

If he should win the primary, he may take the general for the same reason. Star power. He is the man from “Law and Order” who wanted to give no leeway to the criminal.