Some have asked how I came up with the odds. I thought I’d take a moment to explain my method because the numbers have changed and it will cut some of the time if I dealt with the how in the beginning of this article.

The odds are NOT based on my feelings toward any particular candidate. I have taken the major groups that would be voting in the primary and the general and made my determination based on how I believe these groups would vote.

In the primary, there are three groups.

1-The hard right: absolutes, purist, 3^rd party wannabes. Their major issues are illegal immigration, gun control, and government spending.

They make up 3% of the GOP vote maximum but very vocal and intimidating.

2-The Christian and Pro-lifers: Their major issues are the courts: gay marriage, abortion, defense of Christian worship.

They can make up anywhere from 22% to perhaps 40% of the vote because this includes Independents that may not normally vote “conservative”, but has been voting GOP since Roe vs. Wade.

3-The Base. Now there’s been a lot of claim to this title by the absolutes but the base of the GOP are busy working people who thinks it’s ok to close the borders but is not fanatical about it…who think they pay too much taxes but kind of like the Social Security and other social programs that help care for their elderly parents and relatives down on their luck…who only hate government interference when they want to build an extension to their house and has to get all those building permits.

They aren’t the absolutists or purist…they’re not even the reasonable conservatives like Sandra, Sheila, Jev, Dave, or wil. Most who will vote Republican have little interest in politics, knows who got eliminated on American Idol but not who the speaker of the House is.

They care if their gas goes up, if Joe can marry Mike, and if our troops don’t get the gear they need to kick butt.

They are not stupid—just extremely busy making a buck and trying to find time to shuffle kids to their sports and weekend activities and to attend their place of worship.

This group makes up another 15%.

In the general, I add the following:

4- Christian Democrats who will vote for a pro-life/pro-marriage candidate even if he/she is a Republican. I’d say they add another 5% and they just loved the absolutist telling them that there is no difference between the GOP and the Dems so they could stick to their Liberal principles when they vote.

5- Independents who lean Left on some issues, Right on others. Because they rarely feel strongly about any one issue, this group, the largest at 55% to 60% of the voters (with the Independents already voting GOP) cannot be counted on and must be courted.

Independents are NOT the same as moderates. They don’t accept lukewarm version of the hard Left or hard Right issues. They can care deeply and passionately about one or two issues; they just do not follow ALL the mantra of the Left or the Right.

**

Now for the changes:

McCain:

As some of you may know, I’ve been having a long run in with my British Tory partner about McCain’s electability. I just couldn’t see who in the primary would vote for McCain.

Now let me make myself perfectly clear. I do not like McCain. I think his sour grapes and his lack of support for the president shows his true character. I hope I don’t have to choose between him and Queen Hill.

But to answer my own question of who would vote for him, after today’s speech, I would have to say two groups…the Christian/Pro-lifers and the base. From their point of view…McCain is an ex-vet, pro-lifer, who just gave an upbeat Reagan type speech with all the humility of a born again Bush. What’s there not to like?

IF he makes it to the general, he’ll find the Independents who will remember that the man kept the Senate from shutting down the courts (unlike Newt) and got SOME of the pie instead of none.

New odds: 49% (primary), 57% (general)

Romney:

I think Romney’s star has started to fall. The man is about as exciting as wet cardboard and while the darling of the RINO press; he seems to be a compromise candidate…one people “can” vote for only because there isn’t anyone else.

I believe that all the groups above will soon look elsewhere because they want someone that will fire them up—and Romney is not it.

New odds: 42% (primary), 35% (general).

Hunter:

Ok, this is going to be totally unfair but I think it has great possibilities. I am upping Hunter’s chances a full 10 points in the primary because he demanded Reid’s resignation. I think it showed ba11s and yet, it didn’t offend the average guy precisely because the Dems have demanded the same to so many other people.

Besides…be honest, how many people on the Right smiled upon hearing Hunter say that?

New odds: 51% (primary), 60% (general)